Choose Your Own Research Adventure

I spend a day looking for possible ideas if found four leads

I know you are bored. Me too. :)

I spend a day looking for ideas on Fintwit I found four ideas that I like to look into. I want to make this interactive. The intention of this project is to have a fun pass time and maybe we’ll learn something.

I like everyone to help more prioritize my time by voting. I like to make this blog more fun and interactive. Here is how i see the potential of these ideas.

Please Vote here

https://www.strawpoll.me/20549293

Please Vote here

Burford Capital Limited $BUR High Return on popcorn, low return on brain damage

I first heard of this stock a few years back. The story was in the compounder variety I looked at the annual report and it was written in a way that I could not know what was on the books. It was BlackBox with the promise of a high return on capital all you need to do is to trust the management. I recall at the time it was trading at book or premium to book. It was not worth my time so I passed.

I recently found out that due to the Muddy Water reports and its questionable accounting practice it’s now trading at discount to book.

Never thought much about short-sellers who are over promotional they get too committed to an okay idea and are a bit too much accounting focused, sometimes it is more about where the things are going than if they did their homework correctly. A good example would be Home Capital and Tesla.

For me, whether Burford Capital is a fraud is 50/50. Never looked into short reports much, This will be a fun copy.

I will be going through the MuddyWater report to understand their point of view and hopefully using my analysis edge to handicap the possible outcomes. To bring a more unbiased view of things.

$ING ING Group, low return on brain damage, maybe grow my edge technology

They are probably one of the few banks that are doing well adopting new technology into banking. If banking is about the adoption of technology i think they will win. I would like to look into them further to see if these technology moves are actually creating value.

Banks like to make consistent money for long periods and blow up periodically. $ING is an international bank working across multiple borders so there could be lots of skeletons hidden it’s probably impossible to find out with my resources.

On top of that wholesale banking is where a lot of the money made and the company had been charged and fined 900 million for money laundering in 2018. There might also be fake earnings coming from these activities. if could be a fun project, trying to handicap their money laundering business.

Looking into technology innovation in banking and handicapping returns on money laundering.

Super low return on brain damage. there will be fun graphics and charts.

$EB Eventbrite Inc high return on brain damage probably impossible to know

A company that is not making any money and burning cash. The long thesis is that they are restructuring and they will make money when people start going outside. because they have some kind of platform value. could pay off big if true. probably impossible to know.

Dropbox Inc $DBX (High return on brain damage, possible long term payoff on learning the company.)

The stock price hasn’t done much since the IPO. the business has a big base of enterprise customers and probably starting to monetize.

I am starting to see trends happening in this space it is a lot harder than consumer technology.

When I saw it in IPO I was surprised at how much stock was given away for compensation. So I passed. would like to see if they changed and what they are doing to monetization.

It feels like dropbox could be the early post-IPO Facebook. I like to look into it more to find out.

here it is, looking forward to your votes.

Cheers

Jason,